Alaska is a huge and incredibly diverse place. Fishing is an incredibly diverse sport. Combine these two factors with daily and season weather conditions and it becomes virtually impossible to predict fishing success. Fishing conditions within the same lake or river are anything but consistent. Heck, the fishing on the other end of the boat (usually my partners end) can seem much better on some days.

Having said that it is interesting if not marginally productive to take a look at some general patterns and make predictions. Past creel surveys, commercial catch rates and stream surveys can all combine to give us some idea of what is to come in the next season. The fact that the 2007 commercial harvest was the fourth best in the past 50 years has to mean something.

The following are general predictions based on past results and current indicators. They cover very large areas and fishing within those areas can produce excellent results even if the overall outlook is less than outstanding.

It is always important to check the Fish and Game regulations to be sure you are aware of local guidelines and catch limits. You can find the regulations at: http://www.sf.adfg.state.ak.us/statewide/reghome.cfm

SOUTHCENTRAL  ALASKA

King Salmon
-This year should be similar to last years in general and last years numbers were up slightly from the historic averages.
-2007 numbers on the Kenai were good with 16,000 fish returning in the early run.
-There are some concerns about the Susitna drainage showing lower numbers than in the past
-Bristol bay is expected to be good
-In general Kodiak Island has shown increasing numbers of commercial harvest but the Ayakulik and Kurluk rivers in particular are not showing these same increases in returning fish.

Red Salmon
-Over 40 million fish are expected to return to Bristol Bay. This is considerably higher than past averages.

Silver Salmon
-In the 2007 season the generally increasing numbers of silver salmon prompted an increase in the daily catch limit of 3 fish to 5 fish. The outlook for this year is just as promising.
-Fishing in Resurrection Bay and the Seward areas should be particularly good. The Kenai River may be slower than average.

Pink Salmon
-Pinks tend to return in much higher numbers in even years. You do the math.

Halibut
- In 2007 the International Halibut Commission recommended reducing the commercial harvest by a little over 7% in specific areas. This indicates lower numbers of fish but is not expected to result in a change in the sport-fishing limit.

SOUTHEAST ALASKA
 

King Salmon
-In 2007 in the open waters around Sitka the average time spent per King caught was 5 hours. This is about the same as the short-term average.
-In some areas like the Wrangell Narrows numbers have been high enough recently to allow for the doubling of daily bag limits.
-2008 is expected to follow a similar pattern as 2007

Silver Salmon
-Silver runs are expected to be close if not slightly lower than recent historical averages.

Pink Salmon
-Similarly to the Coho prediction, Pink Salmon are expected to return in average or fewer numbers. It should go without saying that slightly lower than average numbers of Pinks still represent huge numbers of fish and fishing opportunities.

Halibut
-Fishing for these bottom dwellers should continue to be good in this area with the waters near Craig producing some of the highest catch rates.

THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA

King Salmon
-King Salmon numbers should follow patterns similar to those in recent years.
-If past patterns hold true the Kanektok and Goodnews rivers may be hot spots this year.

Red Salmon
-The 2008 season is expected to be “a little less than the past two years” according to Tom Taube a Fairbanks biologist.

Silver Salmon
-Last year the returning number of silver Salmon to the Unalakleet River was more than 3 times the average for the past 10 years. We can only hope that this year shows similar returns.

Resident fish species
-Dolly Varden, Pike and Sheefish are all doing well.
-The Sheefish (also known as Eskimo Tarpon) has been found to be 5 times what it was only 10 years ago.
 

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This entry was posted on Monday, June 2nd, 2008 at 2:51 pm and is filed under Fishing in Alaska, Alaska. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.